Ufa scientists have created COVID-19 distribution model in Russia

In Russia, two models have been created for the incidence of new coronavirus infection. The first was introduced by the company, the developer of analytical products Megaputer Intelligence, and the second was developed at the project office for mathematical modeling of Ufa State Aviation Technical University (USATU) and Bashkir State Medical University (BSMU).

According to the studies of Ufa scientists, the peak incidence of COVID-19 in the country fell on May 8–9, when 10.5 thousand infected were registered.

Irina Lakman, head of the project office for mathematical modeling and forecasting at Ufa State Aviation Technical University, explained to RBC that small regions of the country took control of the virus spread by May 15, and in larger ones the situation is tense, but the rate of recovery is higher than the rate of infection.

The Ufa forecasting model is based on classic epidemiological models and time series analysis tools. Forecasting horizon – is seven to ten days, accuracy 96-97%.