Ufa doctor gives prognosis of COVID-19 situation development in Bashkiria

Naufal Zagidullin, Doctor of Medicine, expert of the mathematical modeling and forecasting office of Bashkir State Medical University and Ufa State Aviation Technical University, predicted the further development of the situation with COVID-19 in Bashkiria. According to the scientist, the republic has almost reached a peak of incidence.

“The arrival of shift workers somewhat increases the number of infections, but the trend remains correct. We are lagging behind Moscow by 1-1.5 weeks, and on May 12, we are planning to reach a peak, after which there will be stabilization at the level of 90 people +/- 10 per day. As in Russia, we have already reached the maximum of the incidence rate. It seems that the incidence figures were 2-3 times higher than the official ones, and quite a lot of people have already had the virus,” he shared his vision of the situation.

With regard to mortality from the coronavirus, which in the republic abruptly stopped and approached all-Russian values, another 5-15 deaths will be registered in the region before the end of the epidemic, according to the forecasts of Naufal Zagidullin.

The expert believes that Bashkiria is currently fully prepared even for a possible bad scenario. “By bad scenario, I mean the arrival of a large number of infected shift workers, outbreaks of the coronavirus in other hospitals, etc. Everybody is already on the alert regarding the virus outbreaks in hospitals, and what happened earlier will not occur in the republic (at least on such a scale), ”the scientist believes.