Coronavirus cases will double in Bashkiria by April 21 - forecast

By next Tuesday, April 21, the number of detected cases of coronavirus infection in Bashkiria can reach 389, which is two times more than on April 16. The forecast has been compiled by scientists from a joint project office for mathematical modeling and prediction of the development of the new coronavirus, created jointly by Bashkir State Medical University (BSMU) and Ufa State Aviation Technical University (USATU). Predictive models are made with a 7-day planning horizon based on Rospotrebnadzor data; their accuracy is 98%.

According to scientists, the republic is now in the middle of an epidemic, the incidence rate is stable, and the plateau is not yet visible. Moreover, the linear nature of the curve constructed by them suggests that quarantine measures are effective.

Earlier, the Bashinform News Agency reported that BSMU and USATU scientists were developing a mathematical model for predicting the development of coronavirus infection. A short-term (3-5 days) and long-term (from 1 week to 1 year) forecast of coronavirus infection morbidity, mortality and the rate of recovery is necessary for planning quarantine measures, health resources (number of beds in hospitals, number of medical staff) and also regime measures in the economy applicable to small and large businesses.