Ufa scientists predicted COVID-19 incidence in Russia in few days

Татьяна Аксютина

The number of patients with coronavirus infection in Moscow will reach 10 thousand by April 14, and in the regions of Russia, excluding Moscow, the region and St. Petersburg - 5 thousand. This conclusion was made by scientists of the project office for mathematical modeling and prediction of the development of new coronavirus infection, created jointly by Bashkir State Medical University (BSMU) and the Ufa State Aviation Technical University (USATU).

Scientists are building predictive models with a 7-day planning horizon based on data from Rospotrebnadzor with 98% accuracy. A similar model for Bashkiria will appear in the near future; it requires a bit more data dynamics.

Earlier, the Bashinform News Agency reported that BSMU and USATU scientists were developing a mathematical model for predicting the coronavirus infection development. It is expected that authorities and the health system are expected to be able to function more quickly and efficiently based on the models.

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