Bashkiria’s budget is prepared according to basic scenario of socio-economic development

Galiya Nabieva

UFA, 5 October 2015. /Bashinform News Agency, Galiya Nabieva/. A basic version of the forecast was adopted for drafting the budget of the republic in accordance with the recommendations of the Government of the Russian Federation, said the Minister of Economic Development of Bashkortostan Sergey Novikov at a meeting of the Presidium of the State Assembly RB. It supposes a tense foreign policy with the envisaged increase in average price of crude oil "Urals" from US $ 50 per barrel in 2015 to US $ 60-70 in 2016-2018. It is assumed strengthening of the national currency rate to 53 rubles per dollar by 2018.

The head of economic department of the republic submitted the parliamentarians a forecast of socio-economic development of Bashkortostan for 2016 and for the period until 2018.

The forecasting process was carried out in fairly difficult macroeconomic conditions. "At the end of 2015, according to the forecast estimate, the rate of GRP (gross regional product) was revaluated from the previously expected 100% to 98.1%. In the current environment, both external and internal risk factors the presented forecast contains three scenarios - pessimistic, basic and optimistic).

The Minister of Economic Development of the region noted that the growth of gross regional product in 2016 would amount to 102%, in 2017 – to 102.8%, in 2018 – to 103.1%. The average annual growth of investment in fixed capital in these years will be 5.2%. It is expected that with the gradual strengthening of the ruble and restrained consumer demand inflation will decline from 107% in 2016 to 105% - in 2018. The inflation decrease and renewed economic growth will ensure an increase in real disposable income rate of 101.3% in 2016 and 102.8% and 103.2% in 2017-2018.

Sergey Novikov focused on the fact that changes would be possible during the discussion of the forecast scenarios of development.

The package of budget documents submitted to the State Assembly RB will pass discussions in the committees and at a plenary session on October 27.

#budget #scenarios #republic

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