Russian Ministry of Economic Development has warned about economic development risks.
The external risk is a global economic slowdown, while the internal risk is the continuation of tight monetary policy.
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has presented an updated forecast through 2028. RBC reviewed it. In the baseline scenario, the economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 (following an estimated 1% in 2025). The main risk to the baseline forecast, in addition to a global economic slowdown, is the prolonged continuation of Russia's own tight monetary policy. This could negatively impact consumer and investment activity.
The conservative scenario projects GDP growth of 0.8%. This option takes into account the possible escalation of sanctions, trade wars, and slowing oil demand. Even in this scenario, experts do not expect a recession and project inflation to decline to the target 4%.
Author: Elina Akhmetova
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