Key rate returned to 18% exactly one year later

On July 26, 2024, the Central Bank, fighting inflation and increased demand, raised the key rate immediately to 18%. On July 25, 2025, the key rate returned to the same level after a year of the highest rates in the country's history, also jumping by 2 percentage points.

According to the operator of preferential mortgage programs Dom.rf, if a year ago the average market rate for a loan for a new building was 19.66% (+3% compared to June 2024), now it is 24.45% (-4.5% compared to June 2025).

In the first half of 2024, sales of housing under construction amounted to 2.3 million sq. m, in January-June of this year - a quarter (-26%) less: 1.7 million sq. m.

In the previous first half of the year, construction of 22.9 million sq. m was launched in the country, this year - 17.7 million sq. m (-22.7%).

If in January-June 2024, with the current "mortgage at 8% for everyone", the share of mortgages in housing acquisition transactions was 90%, a year later - 63%.

Low demand has created an excess of supply. As previously reported, in Bashkiria, the ratio of new buildings sold out to construction readiness is about 50% (this means that supply exceeds demand), and the sales period for new housing is on average 6.5 years.

On average, the countrywide indicator of sale to construction readiness has significantly decreased in July and approached the threshold of 71% (below 70% is an imbalance in favor of supply). At the same time, the sale of apartments was increasingly due to the active use of the installment mechanism, which replaced mortgages: the share of sales for cash and by installments increased to 37%.

The past year has become one of the most difficult for the construction industry, and the next six months will determine its fate, according to real estate market experts. They point out that much will depend on the further dynamics of the key rate, and it will be possible to talk about the restoration of demand for mortgages when the "key" goes below 15%.

Author: Elina Akhmetova