Experts assessed chances of Russians to live to new retirement age

Galina Bakhshieva

UFA, 27 June 2018. /Bashinform News Agency, Galina Bakhshieva/ translated by Tatiana Aksyutina/. Among the first generation of Russians who will reach the retirement age of 65 and 63, 17.4% of men and 6.5% of women risk not to reach this age, RBC reports, referring to the calculations of the Institute of Demography of the Higher School of Economics.

A probability of men survival to the retirement age, who will retire during the transition period proposed by the government, ranges from 82 to 96%. For women, this indicator varies at the level of 93-99%.

Men

The process of raising the retirement age for men will last 10 years - from 2019 to 2028. It will affect men born in 1959 and younger. The chances of potential pensioners to survive to a pension, according to the HSE calculations, will decrease from year to year.

Thus, among men born in 1959, a probability of survival before the new retirement age is 95.8% (61 years), among those born in 1960 - already 91.7% (62 years), in 1961 - 88.9% (63 years), in 1962 - 85.6% (64 years).

The first generation of men who will retire at age 65 will be men born in 1963. A probability of survival until retirement, according to experts, will be 82.6% for them. That is, 17.4% of men will not survive to retirement.

With the current retirement age of 60 years, the chances of men to live up to a pension are higher. For 1959-1963 they are 92-98%, according to the estimates of the Institute of Demography.

Women

Women whose retirement age was increased by eight years, a transition period will last until 2034. It will affect women from 1964-1971 years of birth. A probability of their survival to new retirement ages is higher than that of the generation of men, according to experts' calculations. However, as in the case of men, this indicator is lower than a probability of surviving to the current retirement age, in addition, it falls every year.

For women of 1971 year of birth, who will retire at 63 first, a probability of survival will be 93.5%.

#new retirement age

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