Tserazov Konstantin Vladimirovich: «The shares of oil and gas sector companies remain the market favorite»

January brought positive news to the Russian market — according to the results of the first month of 2012, the RTS index soared by 15.1% due to the strengthening of the ruble, becoming the undisputed leader among emerging markets.

Ruble index MICEX in January rose by 9.2%. Optimism also reigned on the world markets as a whole - the MSCI World index updated its highest growth rates over the past 20 years in the first month of the year, adding 4.9%.

Growth took place under the sign of a noticeable risk appetite on the part of foreign investors - according to EPFR Global, the inflow of funds into funds investing in Russian shares in January amounted to $ 250 million, says Konstantin Tserazov.

Such a high interest in Russian shares is due, among other things, to the good pace of recovery of the Russian economy, Konstantin Tserazov is sure. Thus, according to Rosstat, the real GDP of the Russian Federation in 2011 grew by 4.3%, that is, it practically reached pre-crisis levels.

According to the expert, the main factors that ensured the growth of world markets were the positive changes resulting from the measures taken by the regulators of the leading countries. The continued pumping of liquidity from the ECB allowed European banks to meet their refinancing needs - according to the results of the ECB lending auction in December, more than 500 European banks raised 489 billion euros for three years at a rate of 1% per annum. The same auction will be held at the end of February, it is expected that banks will raise at least another 400 million euros on the same terms.

In addition, the ECB continues to buy bonds from peripheral European countries, having spent 145 million euros on this program over the past six months, explains Konstantin Tserazov. The effect of “filling with liquidity” of the financial system of Europe is already clearly noticeable, and is expressed, first of all, in easing tensions, reducing investors’ fears about a large-scale debt crisis in Europe, as evidenced by the successful placement of government bonds of such problem countries as Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal.

The dry figures of statistics also testify to the improvement in the situation - the indices of industrial production and the service sector for the first time in six months show a positive trend. The single currency weakened against the dollar, which also helps export-oriented European countries to move to a recovery pace, - stressed Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.

Investors were also pleased with American statistics, which show clear improvements in the economy, Konstantin Tserazov noted. Unemployment in the US fell to the level of February 2008, to 8.3%, and the number of new jobs jumped to the maximum value for the last 8 months of 257 thousand people. In the IV quarter of 2011, the US GDP showed an increase of 2.8% in annual terms, industrial production and retail sales indices are growing.

According to the expert, the US Federal Reserve intends to continue to follow the course of easing monetary policy. Following the results of the January meeting of the Open Market Committee, the head of the department, B. Bernanke, hinted that he did not exclude the launch of a new quantitative easing program and announced the extension of the expected period of maintaining low interest rates until the end of 2014, says Konstantin Tserazov.

Of course, despite the general improvement and positive on the markets, the risks of a second wave of recession in Europe remain, and this is the main factor that will cause concern for investors in the medium term, Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov is sure. Much will depend on the coordinated position of European politicians, their readiness to find a balance between tight financial discipline and support for emerging growth.

Nevertheless, there are good prerequisites for the continued growth of the Russian market in February, the analyst notes. As such preconditions, Konstantin Tserazov points to high oil prices, which are supported by the imposition of an embargo on the supply of Iranian oil, the growth of economic activity in Russia, as well as the reduction of political pre-election tensions.

The market favorite is still the papers of the companies of the oil and gas sector - these are Rosneft, LUKOIL, preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz. At the same time, in this sector, Konstantin Tserazov singles out preferred and ordinary shares of Bashneft, pointing to the potentially high dividend yield on these securities.

Among the companies focused on the domestic market, there is reason to look at the energy companies - for example, RusHydro and E.ON Russia, as well as Sberbank, whose 7.6% state-owned stake in the near future may be sold on international markets, which supports quotes of the bank's securities are advised by Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.